The impact of simulated total surface current velocity observations on operational ocean forecasting and requirements for future satellite missions

Abstract

Operational forecasts rely on accurate and timely observations and it is important that the ocean forecasting community demonstrates the impact of those observations to the observing community and its funders while providing feedback on requirements for the design of the ocean observing system. One way in which impact of new observations can be assessed is through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). Various satellite missions are being proposed to measure Total Surface Current Velocities (TSCV). This study uses OSSEs to assess the potential impact of assimilating TSCV observations. OSSEs have been performed using two global ocean forecasting systems; the Met Office’s (MetO) Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model and the Mercator Ocean International (MOI) system. Developments to the individual systems, the design of the experiments and results have been described in two companion papers. This paper provides an intercomparison of the OSSEs results from the two systems. We show that global near surface velocity analysis root-mean-squared-errors (RMSE) are reduced by 20-30% and 10-15% in the MetO and MOI systems respectively, we also demonstrate that the percentage of particles forecast to be within 50 km of the true particle locations after drifting for 6 days has increased by 9%/7%. Furthermore, we show that the global subsurface velocities are improved down to 1500m in the MetO system and down to 400m in the MOI system. There are some regions where TSCV assimilation degrades the results, notably the middle of the gyres in the MetO system and at depth in the MOI system. Further tuning of the background and observation error covariances are required to improve performance in these regions. We also provide some recommendations on TSCV observation requirements for future satellite missions. We recommend that at least 80% of the ocean surface is observed in less than 4 to 5 days with a horizontal resolution of 20 to 50 km. Observations should be provided within one day of measurement time to allow real time assimilation and should have an accuracy of 10 cm/s in the along and across track direction and uncertainty estimates should be provided with each measurement.