Quantifying conditional probabilities of fish-turbine encounters and impacts

Abstract

Tidal turbines are one source of marine renewable energy but development of tidal power is hampered by uncertainties in fish-turbine interaction impacts. Current knowledge gaps exist in efforts to quantify risks, as empirical data and modeling studies have characterized components of fish approach and interaction with turbines, but a comprehensive model that quantifies conditional occurrence probabilities of fish approaching and then interacting with a turbine in sequential steps is lacking. We combined empirical acoustic density measurements of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) and when data limited, published probabilities in an impact probability model that includes approach, entrainment, interactions, and avoidance of fish with axial or cross-flow tidal turbines. Interaction impacts include fish collisions with stationary turbine components, blade strikes by rotating blades, and/or a collision followed by a blade strike. Impact probabilities for collision followed by a blade strike were lowest with estimates ranging from 0.0000242 to 0.0678, and highest for blade strike ranging from 0.000261 to 0.40. Maximum probabilities occurred for a cross-flow turbine at night with no active or passive avoidance. Estimates were lowest when probabilities were conditional on sequential events, and when active and passive avoidance was included for an axial-flow turbine during the day. As expected, conditional probabilities were typically lower than analogous independent events and literature values. Estimating impact probabilities for Pacific herring in Admiralty Inlet, Washington, United States for two device types illustrates utilization of existing data and simultaneously identifies data gaps needed to fully calculate empirical-based probabilities for any site-species combination.