Predicting Motion Patterns Using Optimal Paths

Abstract

The ability to navigate safely and efficiently through a given landscape is relevant for any intelligent moving object. Examples range from robotic science and traffic analysis, to the behavior within an ecosystem. Many objects tend to move in patterns depending on their nature. By establishing models of patterns of motion one may estimate the future motion within an area. We propose here a method for detecting regular patterns of motion by modeling the environment as an energy landscape, and locating optimal paths through it. As an example, we use maritime position Automatic Identification System (AIS) data as input to work out optimal routes between different start and end points when these are not located along the standard shipping lanes. These initial tests show that the method has potential for analyzing and determining regular patterns of motion.