Dynamics analysis and optimal control study of uncertain information dissemination model triggered after major emergencies

Abstract

In order to effectively prevent and combat online public opinion crises triggered by major emergencies, this paper explores the dissemination mechanism of uncertain information on online social platforms. According to the decision-making behavior of netizens after receiving uncertain information, they are divided into eight categories. Considering that there will be a portion of netizens who clarify uncertain information after receiving it, this paper proposes a SEFTFbTbMR model of uncertain information clarification behavior. The propagation dynamics equations of the model are given based on the theory of differential equations, the basic regeneration number R0 of the model is calculated, and the existence and stability of the equilibrium point of the model are analyzed. The theoretical analysis of the model is validated using numerical simulation software, and sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters related to R0. In order to reduce the influence caused by uncertain information, the optimal control strategy of the model is proposed using the Hamiltonian function. It is found that the dissemination of uncertain information among netizens can be suppressed by strengthening the regulation of social platforms, improving netizens’ awareness of identifying the authenticity of information, and encouraging netizens to participate in the clarification of uncertain information. The results of this work can provide a theoretical basis for future research on the uncertain information dissemination mechanism triggered by major emergencies. In addition, the results can also provide methodological support for the relevant government departments to reduce the adverse effects caused by uncertain information in the future.