Assessing the supply risk of geopolitics on critical minerals for energy storage technology in China

Abstract

Energy storage technology as a key support technology for China’s new energy development, the demand for critical metal minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel is growing rapidly. However, these minerals have high external dependence and concentrated import sources, increasing the supply risk caused by geopolitics. It is necessary to evaluate the supply risks of critical metal minerals caused by geopolitics to provide a basis for the high-quality development of energy storage technology in China. Based on geopolitical data of eight countries from 2012 to 2020, the evaluation indicators such as geopolitical stability, supply concentration, bilateral institutional relationship, and country risk index were selected to analyze the supply risk of three critical metal minerals, and TOPSIS was applied to construct an evaluation model for the supply risk of critical metal minerals of lithium, cobalt, and nickel in China. The results show that from 2012 to 2017, the security index of cobalt and lithium resources is between .6 and .8, which is in a relatively safe state, while the security index of nickel resources is .2–.4, which is in an unsafe state. From 2017 to 2020, lithium resources remain relatively safe, and the security index of nickel has also risen to between .6 and .7, which is generally in a relatively safe state. However, the security index of cobalt has dropped to .2, which is in an unsafe or extremely unsafe state. Therefore, China needs to pay attention to the safe supply of cobalt resources and formulate relevant strategies to support the large-scale development of energy storage technology.