Municipal Solid Waste Forecasting in China Based on Machine Learning Models

Abstract

As the largest producing country of municipal solid waste (MSW) around the world, China is always challenged by a lower utilization rate of MSW due to a lack of a smart MSW forecasting strategy. This paper mainly aims to construct an effective MSW prediction model to handle this problem by using machine learning techniques. Based on the empirical analysis of provincial panel data from 2008 to 2019 in China, we find that the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model performs best among all machine learning models. Additionally, we introduce the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method to unravel the correlation between MSW production and socioeconomic features (e.g., total regional GDP, population density). We also find the increase of urban population and agglomeration of wholesales and retails industries can positively promote the production of MSW in regions of high economic development, and vice versa. These results can be of help in the planning, design, and implementation of solid waste management system in China.