Simulation Analysis of Supply Crisis Propagation Based on Global Nickel Industry Chain

Abstract

Nickel is a key metal in the low-carbon transition. The industrial chain is a chain network organization system composed of various layers from the initial production of raw materials to the final product sales. The intensified contradiction between supply and demand can easily lead to the problem of resource supply security, and the occurrence of supply shortages will endanger the healthy and orderly development of the whole industrial chain. Therefore, from the perspective of the industrial chain and based on the trade data related to the nickel industrial chain, this study first constructs a multi-layer network model of the nickel industrial chain, and analyzes its trade structure characteristics and the correlation between different layers. It is found that the export policies of resource exporting countries may influence trade structure characteristics. On this basis, a multi-layer network crisis propagation model of the nickel industrial chain is constructed to simulate the impact and its propagation path of Indonesia supply shock on the entire industrial chain. With the increase of supply shock in Indonesia, the impact of crisis gradually concentrates to the downstream. Along the industrial chain, the number of affected countries gradually increases, but the difference in the impact degree gradually decreases. In addition, there are certain differences in countries affected by crisis at different layers of the industrial chain, and the crisis spreads mainly from China and Japan to the countries in midstream and downstream. The research results can provide corresponding policy suggestions for countries involved in the nickel trade.