A novel few-sample wind power prediction model based on generative adversarial network and quadratic mode decomposition

Abstract

With the emergence of various new power systems, accurate wind power prediction plays a critical role in their safety and stability. However, due to the historical wind power data with few samples, it is difficult to ensure the accuracy of power system prediction for new wind farms. At the same time, wind power data show significant uncertainty and fluctuation. To address this issue, it is proposed in this research to build a novel few-sample wind power prediction model based on the least-square generative adversarial network (LSGAN) and quadratic mode decomposition (QMD). Firstly, a small amount of original wind power data are generated to improve the data by least-square generative adversarial network, which solves the error in prediction with limited sample data. Secondly, a quadratic mode decomposition method based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is developed to address the instability of wind power data and extract hidden temporal characteristics. Specifically, ensemble empirical mode decomposition decomposes the data once to obtain a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), and then variational mode decomposition is used to decompose the fuzzy irregular IMF1 function twice. Finally, a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) is applied to predict wind power data. The LSGAN-QMD-PSO-BiLSTM model proposed in this research is verified on a wind farm located in Spain, which indicates that the proposed model achieves the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) errors of 100.6577 and 66.5175 kW, along with the highest R2 of 0.9639.