Ecological Efficiency Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Characteristics Analysis of the Linkage Development of the Logistics Industry and Manufacturing Industry

Abstract

The logistics and manufacturing industries are basic industries that support social development. First, this study classifies the carbon emissions from the logistics industry and pollution emissions from the manufacturing industry as undesirable outputs and evaluates the ecological efficiency of the logistics and manufacturing industries in the Yangtze River Delta from 2006 to 2016 by using the unexpected slacks-based measure (SBM) model. Second, the study analyzes the spatial differences in industrial correlation efficiency by using the exploratory spatial data analysis method. Third, the spatial econometric model is used to analyze the driving factors of the linkage ecological efficiency between logistics industry and manufacturing industry. Finally, the neural network model is used to predict the linkage ecological efficiency. The results show that the ecological efficiency of the manufacturing industry has steadily improved. The ecological efficiency of the logistics industry presents the rising trend in fluctuation. The level of the linkage development between the logistics and manufacturing industries is high. The results of the spatial heterogeneity analysis show that the spatial differentiation of high–high agglomeration and low–low agglomeration is obvious. The spatial agglomeration characteristics are relatively stable, and the spatial diffusion effect is strong. In space, the linkage ecological efficiency shows a trend of development from multiple agglomeration areas to one agglomeration area. The results of driving factor analysis show that foreign direct investment (FDI), government intervention (GI), and human capital (HP) have positive effects on linkage ecological efficiency, while industrial structure (IS), environmental regulation (ER), and energy intensity (EI) have negative effects on linkage ecological efficiency. The results of the linkage development trend analysis show that the linkage ecological efficiency of the two industries will tend to be stable in the future.