Equivalent Firm Capacity Assessment of HDR-PV Hybrid Power System: A Distributionally Robust Approach

Abstract

Aiming at the reliable grid connection of photovoltaic (PV) systems in frigid plateau regions, this work first designs a flexible hot dry rock (HDR) hybrid power system (HPS), making full use of the potential of HDR for energy storage and power generation. Based on the operation of HPS, a comprehensive energy system credible capacity assessment method considering the overall economy of the system and the reliability of the grid is established. In this method, the power allowable fluctuation rate of the grid as the equivalent firm capacity (EFC) constraint is considered. Then, the constraint is converted into a set of linear chance conditions through the distributionally robust method so that the capacity assessment of the HDR-PV HPS can be converted into a mixed-integer linear optimization problem for a solution. The proposed assessment method is verified by real HDR-PV HPS in the Gonghe Basin of Qinghai Province. The results show that the flexible HDR plant increases the credible capacity of the HPS by 113.38%. The profit of the flexible HDR plant was increased by 3.02% at the same time. The parameter analysis shows that the HDR-PV HPS obtains the most profit when the allowable fluctuation rate is 7%, but 10% can fully utilize the geothermal. The assessment method can effectively assess the credible capacity of the system under the premise of ensuring the overall economy of the HPS, thereby guiding power grid dispatching.