Mapping global platinum supply chain and assessing potential supply risks

Abstract

Platinum is widely considered as a critical mineral. According to the most optimistic scenario, the demand for platinum could increase 240-fold globally by 2050 due to the enormous demand potential for green hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles. By integrating network analysis and evaluation indicators, this study develops a framework to visualize the global platinum upstream supply chain, pinpoint supply-related risk areas, and assess the position of various nations in the supply chain. We conclude that there is a significant risk of disruption to the global platinum upstream supply chain. Following is a summary of the main conclusions: First, the global platinum supply network and primary platinum product trade network are both relatively sparse, with poor network connectivity, and the overall network’s risk-resistance is weak. Second, at the non-geographical production country level, the global platinum mining countries, the countries of the producing companies, and the countries of the shareholders of the producing companies are all highly concentrated. Third, the global platinum supply and demand markets are significantly divided, and South Africa holds a significantly stronger national position in the platinum supply network than any other nation, except for the national level of producing companies’ shareholders. However, the national role of South Africa in the trade network is not as strong as that of consuming countries and transit countries. The study proposes that global platinum consuming countries can reduce supply risks by increasing domestic platinum mine production, building international large-scale integrated mining corporations, and raising global supply share by investing in overseas mines.