The Impact of Country Risks on the Dependence Patterns of International Cobalt Trade: A Network Analysis Method

Abstract

Cobalt is a key resource for the global energy transition, and the differences in the natural endowment of cobalt have led to frequent cobalt trade among countries. This study aims to reveal the dependence patterns of cobalt trade among countries and the impact of country risks (including political and economic risks) on the patterns. First, a cobalt import dependence network (CIDN) and a cobalt export dependence network (CEDN) are established using the network analysis method. Furthermore, this study uses network indicators to reveal the dependence patterns of cobalt trade among countries, and construct diversification indices of trade relations to further analyze the import source risk and the market concentration of cobalt trade. The results indicate that most cobalt importers have a high import source risk, and most cobalt exporters have a high market concentration. Finally, based on the panel regression methods, we reveal an interesting result showing that the dependence patterns of cobalt trade are significantly influenced by country risks. Specifically, on the one hand, for importers, an increase in political risk or economic risk has a negative impact on their dependence patterns of cobalt trade. On the other hand, for exporters, an increase in political risk or economic risk has different effects on their dependence patterns of cobalt trade. This study suggests that countries should pay more attention to the role of country risks in driving the dependence patterns when making cobalt trade policies.