Reliability Synthesis and Prediction for Complex Electromechanical System: A Case Study

Abstract

The life test of a complex electromechanical system (CEMS) is restricted by many factors, such as test time, test cost, test environment, test site, and test conditions. It is difficult to realize system reliability synthesis and prediction of a CEMS which consists of units with different life distributions. Aiming at the problems, a numerical analysis method based on the computer simulation and the Monte Carlo (MC) method is proposed. First, the unit’s life simulation values are simulated using the MC method with the given each unit’s life distribution and its distribution parameter point estimation. Next, using the unit’s life simulation values, the CEMS life simulation value can be obtained based on the CEMS reliability model. A simulation test is realized instead of the life test of the CEMS when there are enough simulation values of the CEMS life. Then, simulation data are analyzed, and the distribution of the CEMS life is deduced. The goodness-of-fit test, point estimation and confidence interval of the parameters, and reliability measure are estimated. Finally, as a test example of the wind turbine, the practicability and effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper are verified.