A Logistic Modelling Analysis for Wind Energy Potential Assessment and Forecasting its Diffusion in Pakistan

Abstract

There is increased focus to harness renewable energy resources in the 21st century to contain climate change and attain energy security. In this context, wind energy is attaining a significant marketplace to meet the ever-increasing electricity demand. This study, as such, undertakes wind energy assessment and forecasts wind power market penetration in Pakistan considering three different scenarios for the period 2020–2050. The modeling approach of this study is based on the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm (LMA) optimization method, which is used to estimate the parameters of the logistic model to improve forecasting precision. It is revealed that around 55, 64, and 73% of wind potential could be technically exploited under each of the three scenarios, respectively. The Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) for each scenario are also estimated. The anticipated annual abatement of GHG emissions and CERs earnings at 30% capacity utilization factor is found to be 158 million CERs by the year 2050. These results suggest that wind energy offers great potential to attain energy security, environmental stability, and sustainable development in Pakistan. This study would assist energy professionals, government, and stakeholders to undertake wind energy market assessment and devise appropriate energy management plans.