Research on the influence factors of accident severity of new energy vehicles based on ensemble learning

Abstract

With the deepening of the concept of green, low-carbon, and sustainable development, the continuous growth of the ownership of new energy vehicles has led to increasing public concerns about the traffic safety issues of these vehicles. In order to conduct research on the traffic safety of new energy vehicles, three sampling methods, namely, Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), Edited Nearest Neighbours (ENN), and SMOTE-ENN hybrid sampling, were employed, along with cost-sensitive learning, to address the problem of imbalanced data in the UK road traffic accident dataset. Three algorithms, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), were selected for modeling work. Lastly, the evaluation criteria used for model selection were primarily based on G-mean, with AUC and accuracy as secondary measures. The TreeSHAP method was applied to explain the interaction mechanism between accident severity and its influencing factors in the constructed models. The results showed that LightGBM had a more stable overall performance and higher computational efficiency. XGBoost demonstrated a balanced combination of computational efficiency and model performance. CatBoost, however, was more time-consuming and showed less stability with different datasets. Studies have found that people using fewer protective means of transportation (bicycles, motorcycles) and vulnerable groups such as pedestrians are susceptible to serious injury and death.