Author:
Lin Qingbiao,Chen Wan,Zhao Xu,Zhou Shangchou,Gong Xueliang,Zhao Bo
Abstract
With the continuous promotion of the unified electricity spot market in the southern region, the formation mechanism of spot market price and its forecast will become one of the core elements for the healthy development of the market. Effective spot market price prediction, on one hand, can respond to the spot power market supply and demand relationship; on the other hand, market players can develop reasonable trading strategies based on the results of the power market price prediction. The methods adopted in this paper include: Analyzing the principle and mechanism of spot market price formation. Identifying relevant factors for electricity price prediction in the spot market. Utilizing a clustering model and Spearman’s correlation to classify diverse information on electricity prices and extracting data that aligns with the demand for electricity price prediction. Leveraging complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) to disassemble the electricity price curve, forming a multilevel electricity price sequence. Using an XGT model to match information across different levels of the electricity price sequence. Employing the ocean trapping algorithm-optimized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (MPA-CNN-BiLSTM) to forecast spot market electricity prices. Through a comparative analysis of different models, this study validates the effectiveness of the proposed MPA-CNN-BiLSTM model. The model provides valuable insights for market players, aiding in the formulation of reasonable strategies based on the market's supply and demand dynamics. The findings underscore the importance of accurate spot market price prediction in navigating the complexities of the electricity market. This research contributes to the discourse on intelligent forecasting models in electricity markets, supporting the sustainable development of the unified spot market in the southern region.