A risk-aware scheduling method of multienergy virtual power plant based on the denoising diffusion probabilistic model

Abstract

A risk-aware scheduling method of multienergy virtual power plant (MEVPP) is proposed to measure the uncertainty in MEVPP. First, a novel day-ahead uncertainty scenario generation method based on denoising diffusion probabilistic model is proposed, and historical data are employed to learn the error relationship between real power curves and predict power curves. The probability distribution of the prediction error which describes the day-ahead output power curve of renewable energy source is learned by parameter training. Subsequently, the effect of risk aversion on decision-making is investigated by implementing conditional value-at-risk in the optimization model, MEVPP operation mode under the carbon trading and green certificate trading mechanism is analyzed. Finally, the proposed scheme is implemented on a test MEVPP with carbon trading, and green certificate trading is addressed in detail through a numerical study. Moreover, the effects of the operator’s risk-averse behavior on the MEVPP are investigated.