Prognostic Nomograms Based on Ground Glass Opacity and Subtype of Lung Adenocarcinoma for Patients with Pathological Stage IA Lung Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

The value of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) subtypes and ground glass opacity (GGO) in pathological stage IA invasive adenocarcinoma (IAC) has been poorly understood, and reports of their association with each other have been limited. In the current study, we retrospectively reviewed 484 patients with pathological stage IA invasive adenocarcinoma (IAC) at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from March 2011 to August 2018. Patients with at least 5% solid or micropapillary presence were categorized as high-risk subtypes. Independent indicators for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were identified by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Based on these indicators, we developed prognostic nomograms of OS and DFS. The predictive performance of the two nomograms were assessed by calibration plots. A total of 412 patients were recognized as having the low-risk subtype, and 359 patients had a GGO. Patients with the low-risk subtype had a high rate of GGO nodules (p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the high-risk subtype and GGO components were independent prognostic factors for OS (LUAD subtype: p = 0.002; HR 3.624; 95% CI 1.263–10.397; GGO component: p = 0.001; HR 3.186; 95% CI 1.155–8.792) and DFS (LUAD subtype: p = 0.001; HR 2.284; 95% CI 1.448–5.509; GGO component: p = 0.003; HR 1.877; 95% CI 1.013–3.476). The C-indices of the nomogram based on the LUAD subtype and GGO components to predict OS and DFS were 0.866 (95% CI 0.841–0.891) and 0.667 (95% CI 0.586–0.748), respectively. Therefore, the high-risk subtype and GGO components were potential prognostic biomarkers for patients with stage IA IAC, and prognostic models based on these indicators showed good predictive performance and satisfactory agreement between observational and predicted survival.