Identifying Edaphic Factors and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Metrics Driving Wildlife Mortality From Anthrax in Kenya’s Wildlife Areas

Abstract

Anthrax, an acute disease of homeotherms caused by soil-borne Bacillus anthracis is implicated in dramatic declines in wildlife mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Anthrax outbreaks are often localized in space and time. Therefore, understanding predictors of the spatial and temporal occurrence of anthrax in wildlife areas is useful in supporting early warning and improved response and targeting measures to reduce the impact of epizootic risk on populations. Spatial localization of anthrax is hypothesized to be driven by edaphic factors, while the temporal outbreaks are thought to be driven by extreme weather events including temperature, humidity, rainfall, and drought. Here, we test the role of select edaphic factors and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) metrics driven by vegetation structure and climate variability on the spatial and temporal patterns of wildlife mortality from anthrax in key wildlife areas in Kenya over a 20-year period, from 2000 to 2019. There was a positive association between the number of anthrax outbreaks and the total number of months anthrax was reported during the study period and the nitrogen and organic carbon content of the soil in each wildlife area. The monthly occurrence (timing) of anthrax in Lake Nakuru (with the most intense outbreaks) was positively related to the previous month’s spatial heterogeneity in NDVI and monthly NDVI deviation from 20-year monthly means. Generalized linear models revealed that the number of months anthrax was reported in a year (intensity) was positively related to spatial heterogeneity in NDVI, total organic carbon and cation exchange capacity of the soil. These results, examined in the light of experimental studies on anthrax persistence and amplification in the soil enlighten on mechanisms by which these factors are driving anthrax outbreaks and spatial localization.