Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Wooly Wolf (Canis lupus chanco)

Abstract

The Central Asian wolves form a cohort within the wolf-dog clade known as the wooly wolf (Canis lupus chanco). These wolves are poorly studied and their current extent and distribution remain unknown. Apex predators already existing at higher elevations like wooly wolves can be severely affected by climate change because of the absence of suitable refuge. Concomitantly, in the era of Anthropocene, the change in land use land cover (LULC) is rapidly increasing. Even the most adaptable species occurring in human-dominated landscapes may fail to survive under the combined impact of both climate change and human pressure. We collected 3,776 presence locations of the wooly wolf across its range from published literature and compiled 39 predictor variables for species distribution modeling, which included anthropogenic factors, climatic, vegetation, and topographic features. We predicted the change in their distribution under different anthropogenic factors, climate change, and land-use land-cover change scenarios. Wolf showed affinity toward areas with low to moderately warm temperatures and higher precipitations. It showed negative relationships with forests and farmlands. Our future projections showed an expansion of wolf distribution and habitat suitability under the combined effects of future climate and LULC change. Myanmar and Russia had the introduction of high and medium suitability areas for the wooly wolf in future scenarios. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan showed the consistent loss in high suitability areas while Mongolia and Bhutan had the largest gain in high suitability areas. The study holds great significance for the protection and management of this species and also provides opportunities to explore the impact on associated species.