Predicting fish species richness and abundance in the Lower Mekong Basin

Abstract

Predictive models are widely used to investigate relationships between the distribution of fish diversity, abundance, and the environmental conditions in which they inhabit, and can guide management actions and conservation policies. Generally, the framework to model such relationships is established; however, which models perform best in predicting fish diversity and abundance remain unexplored in the Mekong River Basin. Here, we evaluated the performance of six single statistical models namely Generalized Linear Model, Classification and Regression Tree, Artificial Neural Network, k-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest in predicting fish species richness and abundance in the Lower Mekong Basin. We also identified key variables explaining variability and assessed the variable’s sensitivity in prediction of richness and abundance. Moreover, we explored the usefulness of an ensemble modeling approach and investigated if this approach improved model performance. Our results indicated that, overall, the six single statistical models successfully predicted the fish species richness and abundance using 14 geo-hydrological, physicochemical and climatic variables. The Random Forest model consistently out-performed all single statistical models for predicting richness (R2 = 0.85) and abundance (R2 = 0.77); whereas, Generalized Linear Model performed the worst of all models (R2 = 0.60 and 0.56 for richness and abundance). The most important predictors of variation in both richness and abundance included water level, distance from the sea and alkalinity. Additionally, dissolved oxygen, water temperature and total nitrate were important predictors of species richness, while conductivity was important for fish abundance. We found that species richness increased with increasing water level, dissolved oxygen and water temperature, but decreased with increasing distance from the sea, alkalinity and total nitrate. Fish abundance increased with conductivity, but decreased with increasing distance from the sea, water level and alkalinity. Finally, our results highlighted the usefulness of ensemble modeling (R2 = 0.90 and 0.85 for richness and abundance) for providing better predictive power than any of the six single statistical models. Our results can be used to support Mekong River management, particularly fisheries in the context of contemporary regional and global changes.