Coastal Ecosystem Vulnerability and Sea Level Rise (SLR) in South Florida: A Mangrove Transition Projection

Abstract

We used static, elevation and land cover data to estimate sea level rise impacts (SLR) to urban, developed lands and coastal wetland systems in Everglades National Park and the East and West coastal regions in South Florida. Maps and data tables estimating potential state change to open water were compiled through overlay analysis of elevation, land cover, and SLR masks with future land cover projected using a land cover transition threshold model. Analysis was based on a 2–5-km-wide longitudinal band along the SW and SE coasts of Florida where sea-level rise has no surface impediments to inundation and will likely cause coastline transgression and wetland migration. Analysis used three different projections; 0.27 m (0.9 ft), 0.76 m (2.5 ft) and 1.13 m (3.7 ft) greater than current sea level by 2070 estimated by NOAA and IPCC. Under a 0.27 m SLR projection 51% of the coastal land cover may be impacted. Under 0.76 and 1.13 m projected SLR, coastal land cover areas were impacted by 56.5 and 59.1%, respectively. Migration of coastal wetlands from their current location into more inland areas in response to increased water depths and as a function of empirically derived marsh and mangrove accretion rates were also evaluated. With a SLR of 0.76 m by 2070, without accretion, 1,160 sq km of wetland became open estuarine water. However, with accretion values of 0.211 m (4.1 mm yr–1) and 0.55 m (11 mm yr–1) by 2070, there was a transition of wetland cover to open estuarine water of only 349 and 41 sq km, respectively. Under a low SLR of 0.27 m by 2070 scenario with accretion, the coastal mangroves were able to migrate inland while maintaining the current coastline. It was only under the more extreme scenario of 1.13 m SLR by 2070 that accretion was not able to compensate for inundation and there was a loss of wetland coastline everywhere.