What Does the Future Hold for Páramo Plants? A Modelling Approach

Abstract

Understanding the effects of climate change on tropicalpine biota remains a scientific challenge today. The Andean páramo is the largest and most diverse tropicalpine biogeographical region in the world, and also one of the most threatened as it is prone to accelerated environmental changes. My goal was to predict changes in the distribution ranges of the diverse and highly endemic páramo flora on the mid-term (50 years). First, I predicted distribution changes in páramo plant species under novel climates and considering dispersal constraints. Second, I looked for consensus areas of species losses vs. gains in the páramo, expecting to identify a gradient of increasing relative richness with elevation over time. Last, I evaluated the behavior of plant species regarding their climatic refugia since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to establish if they likely remain or transcend them. Based on VegParamo vegetation data and CHELSA bioclimatic information, I performed species distribution models for a 664 species pool, that were then contrasted between the present, future (2070) and past (LGM). About 8.3% of the entire species pool (55 species) were predicted to be extirpated from the páramo by 2070, including 22 species endemics. On average, páramo plants gained 15.52% of additional distribution by 2070 (18.81% for endemics). Models predicted the most area gains for the northern páramos of Colombia and Venezuela, and the highest losses for the eastern Ecuadorian and Peruvian mountains. Moreover, area gains were more pronounced at high elevations, suggesting a future accelerated colonization process toward the northern Andean summits. Finally, only 21.41% of the species’ 2070 distribution coincided with their LGM (19.75% for endemics), and the largest climatic refugia since the LGM were found in southern Ecuador and Peru. This study is pioneer in predicting future distribution shifts for páramo plant species overall and provides solid bases to support climate change research and adaptation strategies in the tropical Andes.