Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Akebia quinata

Abstract

Akebia quinata, also known as chocolate vine, is a creeping woody vine which is used as Chinese herbal medicine, and found widely distributed in East Asia. At present, its wild resources are being constantly destroyed. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for the resource protection of this plant species by analyzing the possible changes in its geographic distribution pattern and its response to climate factors. It is the first time maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS software have been used to predict the distribution of A. quinata in the past, the present, and the future (four greenhouse gas emission scenarios, namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Through the prediction results, the impact of climate change on the distribution of A. quinata and the response of A. quinata to climate factors were analyzed. The results showed that the most significant climatic factor affecting the distribution pattern of A. quinata was the annual precipitation. At present, the suitable distribution regions of A. quinata are mainly in the temperate zone, and a few suitable distribution regions are in the tropical zone. The medium and high suitable regions are mainly located in East Asia, accounting for 51.1 and 81.7% of the worldwide medium and high suitable regions, respectively. The migration of the geometric center of the distribution regions of A. quinata in East Asia is mainly affected by the change of distribution regions in China, and the average migration rate of the geometric center in each climate scenario is positively correlated with the level of greenhouse gas emission scenario.