Path-dependent selection—a bridge between natural selection and neutral selection

Abstract

Path-dependent selection follows the premise of complete symmetry in the neutral theory of selection; mutations in the natural world are entirely based on statistical randomness, lack directionality, and thus do not exhibit differences in fitness. Under specific spatiotemporal conditions, however, evolutionary positive feedback effects resulting from the specific environment will result in the breakdown of symmetry pre-assumed in neutral selection. This evolutionary positive feedback, a recursive effect, is of Lamarckian active selection or inheritance of acquired characteristics. The mutual antagonistic interactions between the positive selection of recursive effect and the passive selection under natural selection pressure of the environment in multidimensional conditions will result in evolutionary paths. Path-dependent selection proposes that the evolutionary process of organisms is a selection process based on path frequencies rather than an increase in fitness, with a strong reliance on the paths that it has taken in the past. Because of the existence of transition probabilities between different paths or within the same path (such as plasmid transfer, transposons, and function transfer in ecological interactions), path formation will exhibit acceleration or deceleration effects, explaining Gould’s principles such as punctuated equilibrium. When environmental selection pressure is weak or zero, most or all paths (like neutral selection outcomes) may be possible. The frequencies of different paths will differentiate as environmental selection increases, and the paths with higher frequencies will be more easily selected. When the evolutionary process or history has no impact on the evolution of the paths themselves (a static, equilibrium state), the path with the highest frequency is the shortest or optimal path used by evolution—a result consistent with Darwin’s theory of natural selection. Path-dependent selection, which draws inspiration from modern physics, particularly path integral methods in quantum mechanics, may provide us with a new perspective and approach to explaining the evolution of life.