Habitat quality assessment and multi-scenario prediction of the Gansu-Qinghai section of the Yellow River Basin based on the FLUS-InVEST model

Abstract

Research on the impact of land use change on regional habitat quality, in various future scenarios, can effectively aid planning and decision-making for sustainable development at a regional level. The study conducted its research in the Gansu-Qinghai Yellow River section and used ArcGIS and a land use transfer matrix to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of land use and land cover changes. The study assessed the changes in habitat quality in the Gansu-Qinghai Yellow River region between 1990 and 2020, using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, by evaluating the gains and losses. Simultaneously, 15 elements of the natural economy were chosen and examined for their temporal and spatial impact on habitat quality using the random forest model and spatially weighted regression model. To forecast land use changes in the Gansu-Qinghai Yellow River section for 2030, the Future Land Use Simulation Model (FLUS) model was utilized and a series of four scenarios (cultivated land protection scenario, ecological protection scenario, natural development scenario, and rapid development scenario) were employed. The research results indicate that over 70% of the Gansu-Qinghai Yellow River is occupied by grasslands, and only a small portion of the area, about 0.22%, is developed for construction purposes. The quality of the habitat in the Gansu-Qinghai Yellow River had a minor drop between 1990 and 2020, followed by an improvement. Habitat quality changes are primarily attributed to improvements, with variations across different areas, i.e., enhanced in the east and reduced in the central and western parts. The habitat quality of the Gansu-Qinghai Yellow River has improved in all four scenarios compared to 2020, as evidenced by the decrease in low-value habitats and increase in high-value areas. The ecological protection scenario has the highest average habitat quality value. These research results can be used to support policy development and ecological restoration initiatives in the Gansu-Qinghai Yellow River.