Assessment of the oceanic channel dynamics responsible for the IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection in CMIP5 climate models

Abstract

Existed studies have suggested a precursory relation between Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño and the Southern Oscillations (ENSO) with 1-year time lag. The underlying mechanisms were attributed to atmospheric bridge and/or oceanic channel processes. In this study, the oceanic channel dynamics in 23 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are assessed by correlation analyses in comparison with observations. The results show that the lag correlations between the IOD and ENSO anomalies associated with oceanic channel are significant, suggesting important role of oceanic channel dynamics in the cross-basin teleconnection in the analyzed CMIP5 models, consistent with observational analyses. In comparison, the correlations associated with atmospheric bridge are highly dispersive among the models and generally inconsistent with the observational analyses, suggesting model deficiencies. In a single climate model, the lag correlations associated with oceanic channel dynamics are consistent among different ensemble experiments, whereas those associated with atmospheric bridge processes are dispersive.