Sustainable energy policies from a complexity perspective

Abstract

The energy policies of the countries have become a key aspect of development. They must be formulated to guarantee economic and social development, state security and compliance with the objectives of sustainable development. In this framework, generation technologies must be considered not only in terms of available natural resources but also in terms of possible contingency scenarios. The purpose of this article is to prioritize technologies by applying a fuzzy inference model and uncertainty model and to address the principles of complex thinking to a case study. The methodology considers the integral vision of the dimensions under the systemic, feedback, autonomy/dependence, holographic and recursive principles, the assignment of weights for the dimension of sustainable development and, finally, the formulation of contingent scenarios. These scenarios consider: exhaustion of a primary source and change of technology with negative or positive impact. As a result, priority is given to the development of wind technology among renewable sources, followed by hydropower and geothermal. In the field of conventional energy, natural gas remains in the first place, since it also reinforces the security and fairness of the system. It is concluded that the process of formulating energy policies based on economic variables and the incorporation of sustainability, in terms of restrictions and linearity in the study models. This must be complemented with the adaptation of the legal and institutional framework that allows the fulfillment of the objectives that are expected to be achieved. Finally, it is necessary to keep constantly updated on changes and improvements in technology, which can modify the variables under study, in order to adapt strategies to new conditions.