County-level total factor productivity of food in China and its spatio-temporal evolution and drivers

Abstract

In the context of the ongoing process of high-quality development in the new era, which is focused on improving total factor productivity, it is of great importance to explore the spatial and temporal variations of total factor productivity growth and its driving factors in China’s county regions’ grain cultivation industry. This paper employs a three-stage DEA-Malmquist productivity method, the Gini coefficient method, and a panel fixed-effects model to analyze data from Chinese counties between 2009 and 2019. The analysis indicates that the growth of county food total factor productivity (FTFP) exhibits a fluctuating upward trend during the examination period, with an average annual growth rate of 2.43%. This is primarily driven by technological progress, yet the core driving role of technological efficiency is not effectively played. The average annual growth rate of county FTFP varies across different regions. The highest average annual growth rate of county FTFP in the eastern region and the primary grain-producing area is 2.75 and 3.04%, respectively. The lowest growth rates were observed in the western region and the main grain marketing area, at 1.44 and 1.23%, respectively. Secondly, the Gini coefficient of county FTFP continues to demonstrate a persistent upward trend during the examination period, with an average annual growth rate of 14.729%. The primary factor contributing to the observed variation in total factor productivity growth of the food sector at the regional level is the existence of disparate technological progress. Thirdly, there is a notable positive correlation between county financial deepening and financial self-sufficiency rates and county FTFP growth, with impact coefficients of 0.0503 and 0.0924, respectively. Conversely, county population density, degree of economic development, farmers’ income level, and industrial structure exert a significant negative influence on county FTFP growth and technological progress.