Prediction of adolescent suicidal ideation after the COVID-19 pandemic: A nationwide survey of a representative sample of Korea

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study developed a model to predict groups vulnerable to suicidal ideation after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic based on nomogram techniques targeting 54,948 adolescents who participated in a national survey in South Korea.MethodsThis study developed a model to predict suicidal ideation by using logistic regression analysis. The model aimed to understand the relationship between predictors associated with the suicidal ideation of South Korean adolescents by using the top seven variables with the highest feature importance confirmed in XGBoost (extreme gradient boosting). The regression model was developed using a nomogram so that medical workers could easily interpret the probability of suicidal ideation and identify groups vulnerable to suicidal ideation.ResultsThis epidemiological study predicted that eighth graders who experienced depression in the past 12 months, had a lot of subjective stress, frequently felt lonely in the last 12 months, experienced much-worsened household economic status during the COVID-19 pandemic, and had poor academic performance were vulnerable to suicidal ideation. The results of 10-fold cross-validation revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the adolescent suicidal ideation prediction nomogram was 0.86, general accuracy was 0.89, precision was 0.87, recall was 0.89, and the F1-score was 0.88.ConclusionIt is required to recognize the seriousness of adolescent suicide and mental health after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and prepare a customized support system that considers the characteristics of persons at risk of suicide at the school or community level.