Prognostic Model and Nomogram Construction Based on a Novel Ferroptosis-Related Gene Signature in Lower-Grade Glioma

Abstract

Background: Low-grade glioma (LGG) is considered a fatal disease for young adults, with overall survival widely ranging from 1 to 15 years depending on histopathologic and molecular subtypes. As a novel type of programmed cell death, ferroptosis was reported to be involved in tumorigenesis and development, which has been intensively studied in recent years.Methods: For the discovery cohort, data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) were used to identify the differentially expressed and prognostic ferroptosis-related genes (FRGs). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox were used to establish a prognostic signature with the above-selected FRGs. Then, the signature was developed and validated in TCGA and Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) databases. By combining clinicopathological features and the FRG signature, a nomogram was established to predict individuals’ one-, three-, and five-year survival probability, and its predictive performance was evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. Enrichment analysis was performed to explore the signaling pathways regulated by the signature.Results: A novel risk signature contains seven FRGs that were constructed and were used to divide patients into two groups. Kaplan–Meier (K−M) survival curve and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses confirmed the prognostic performance of the risk model, followed by external validation based on data from the CGGA. The nomogram based on the risk signature and clinical traits was validated to perform well for predicting the survival rate of LGG. Finally, functional analysis revealed that the immune statuses were different between the two risk groups, which might help explain the underlying mechanisms of ferroptosis in LGG.Conclusion: In conclusion, this study constructed a novel and robust seven-FRG signature and established a prognostic nomogram for LGG survival prediction.