The Independent Effects of Kidney Length and Vascular Plaque on Ten-Year Outcomes of Extended Criteria Donor Kidney Transplants

Abstract

The independent effects of deceased donor kidney length and vascular plaque on long-term graft survival are not established. Utilizing DonorNet attachments from 4,480 expanded criteria donors (ECD) recovered between 2008 and 2012 in the United States with at least one kidney biopsied and transplanted, we analyzed the relationship between kidney length and vascular plaques and 10-year hazard of all-cause graft failure (ACGF) using causal inference methods in a Cox regression framework. The composite plaque score (range 0–4) and the presence of any plaque (yes, no) was also analyzed. Kidney length was modeled both categorically (<10, 10–12, >12 cm) as well as numerically, using a restricted cubic spline to capture nonlinearity. Effects of a novel composite plaque score 4 vs. 0 (HR 1.08; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.23) and the presence of any vascular plaque (HR 1.08; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.20) were attenuated after adjustment. Likewise, we identified a potential nonlinear relationship between kidney length and the 10-year hazard of ACGF, however the strength of the relationship was attenuated after adjusting for other donor factors. The independent effects of vascular plaque and kidney length on long-term ECD graft survival were found to be minimal and should not play a significant role in utilization.