Web-Based Prediction Models for Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival of Patients With Primary Urachal Carcinoma: A Study Based on SEER Database

Abstract

Objective:We aimed to establish nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with primary urachal carcinoma (UrC).MethodsInformation on patients diagnosed with UrC from 1975 to 2018 was collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Research Data. The independent prognostic factors were determined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Backward variable elimination according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) identified the most accurate and parsimonious model. Nomograms were built based on regression coefficients. The C-index, calibration plot, Brier score, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve were used to evaluate the efficiency of models.ResultsIn total, 236 patients obtained from SEER were divided randomly into training and validation cohorts in a 70:30 ratio (166 and 70 patients, respectively). In the training cohort, multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that pTNM/Sheldon/Mayo staging systems (included respectively), age, and tumor grade were independent prognostic factors for OS. A similar result was also found in CSS. While other variables, such as radiotherapy and chemotherapy, did not identify significant correlations. In predicting OS and CSS at 3- and 5- years, the nomograms based on pTNM showed superior discriminative and calibration capabilities in comparison to multiple statistical tools. The C-index values for the training cohort were 0.770 for OS and 0.806 for CSS, and similar outcomes were shown in further internal validation (C-index 0.693 for OS and 0.719 for CSS). We also discovered that the link between age at diagnosis and survival follows a U-shaped curve, indicating that the risk of poor prognosis decreases first and then increases with age.ConclusionThe efficacy of pTNM in predicting the prognosis of patients with UrC was greater than that of the Sheldon and Mayo staging system. Therefore, we recommend pTNM as the preferred system to stage UrC. The novel constructed nomograms based on pTNM, age, and tumor grade showed high accuracy and specificity and could be applied clinically to predict the prognosis of patients with UrC.