Exploring time-varying impact of world pandemic uncertainty on China's commodity prices using TVP-SVAR-SV model

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing body of literature has focused on the impact of the uncertainty of the world pandemic (WPU) on commodity prices. Using the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2020, we run the TVP-SVAR-SV model to study the time-varying impact of WPU on China's commodity prices. Specifically, we select minerals, non-ferrous metals, energy and steel commodities for a categorical comparison and measure the impact of WPU accordingly. The findings are as follows. First, WPU has a significant time-varying impact on China's commodity prices, and the short-term effect is greater than the long-term effect. Second, compared with the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008 and China's stock market crash in the second quarter of 2015, WPU had a greatest impact on Chinese commodity prices during the COVID-19 pandemic event in the fourth quarter of 2019. Third, significant differences exist in the impact of WPU on the four major commodity prices. Among them, WPU has the largest time-varying impact on the price of minerals but the smallest time-varying impact on that of steel.