The correlation between attack rates and urban health indicators during the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the inter-provincial variation in the increase of attack rates in the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey and to determine their relationship with potential urban health indicators. In this ecological study, dependent variables were selected as the COVID-19 attack rates of provinces before the third wave and during the third peak and the attack rate increase ratio. Urban health indicators that can function as determinants of health were calculated for each province under five headings: demographic, health capacity, economic, environmental, and socio-cultural. The epidemiologic maps were produced to show the spatial distribution of COVID-19 attack rates pre- and during the third wave. The associations with urban indicators were conducted using bivariate analysis, including Pearson or Spearman correlation analysis. A multiple linear regression model was run with variables significantly associated with increased attack rates. The results of our study show significant regional variations in COVID-19 attack rates both at the beginning and during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey. Among the provinces, the attack rate increase ratio has only shown significant correlations to education level and some economic indicators, such as income, employment, industrial activity measured by electric consumption, and economic activity in the manufacturing industry. The multivariate analysis determined that the indicator of economic activity in the manufacturing industry is related to the increase of the attack rate in the third wave. Our results show that the COVID-19 cases are higher in more developed cities with more manufacturing sector activity. It makes us think that it is mainly related to inequalities arising from access to health institutions and testing. It can be determined that the partly lockdown strategy, which excluded the industrial activity in the country, concluded the higher increase in the attack rates in highly industrialized provinces.