Comparison of secular trends of leukemia in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021 and their projections for the next 15 years

Abstract

BackgroundLeukemia imposes a large healthcare burden both in China and the United States (US). The disease burden differs greatly between the two countries, but related research is limited. We explored the differences in leukemia incidence and mortality between China and the US.MethodsData on leukemia in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Incidence and mortality were used to estimate the disease burden, and joinpoint regression was performed to compare their secular trends. We used an age-period-cohort model to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort and project future trends in the next 15 years.ResultsIn 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of leukemia were lower in China than in the US. However, the incidence and mortality of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) was considerably higher in China. In the past decades, the ASIR showed decreased tendency in the US, while ASIR showed stable in China. The ASDR tended to decrease in both countries from 1990 to 2021. Males have higher rates of incidence and mortality than females in two countries. The age effects showed that children and older individuals have higher RRs for incidence and mortality in China, while the RRs for incidence and mortality in the US particularly increased in the older population. The disease burden of leukemia in children is obviously greater in China. The ASIRs and ASDRs of leukemia will continue to decline in the next 15 years in China and the US, with the US experiencing a more obvious downtrend.ConclusionsOver the past decades, the ASDRs in two countries both tended to decrease. And compared to the US, China had lower leukemia incidence and mortality, However, the ASIRs in China tended toward stable, which it was showed downtrend in the US. Children have obviously greater RRs for incidence and mortality in China. The incidence and mortality will decrease continuously in two countries. Effective intervention measures are needed to reduce the burden of leukemia.