A Visualized Dynamic Prediction Model for Overall Survival in Elderly Patients With Pancreatic Cancer for Smart Medical Services

Abstract

BackgroundPancreatic cancer (PC) is a highly malignant tumor of the digestive system. The number of elderly patients with PC is increasing, and older age is related to a worse prognosis. Accurate prognostication is crucial in treatment decisions made for people diagnosed with PC. However, an accurate predictive model for the prognosis of these patients is still lacking. We aimed to construct nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with PC.MethodsPatients with PC, older than 65 years old from 2010 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, were selected and randomly divided into training cohort (n = 4,586) and validation cohort (n = 1,966). Data of patients in 2016–2018 (n = 1,761) were used for external validation. Univariable and forward stepwise multivariable Cox analysis was used to determine the independent prognostic factors. We used significant variables in the training set to construct nomograms predicting prognosis. The performance of the models was evaluated for their discrimination and calibration power based on the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsAge, insurance, grade, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, T, N, and American Joint Commission on Cancer were independent predictors for OS and thus were included in our nomogram. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the C-indices of our nomogram were 0.725 (95%CI: 0.715–0.735) and 0.711 (95%CI: 0.695–0.727), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year areas under receiver operating characteristic curves showed similar results. The calibration curves showed a high consensus between observations and predictions. In the external validation cohort, C-index (0.797, 95%CI: 0.778–0.816) and calibration curves also revealed high consistency between observations and predictions. The nomogram-related DCA curves showed better clinical utility compared to tumor-node-metastasis staging. In addition, we have developed an online prediction tool for OS.ConclusionsA web-based prediction model for OS in elderly patients with PC was constructed and validated, which may be useful for prognostic assessment, treatment strategy selection, and follow-up management of these patients.