Variability in the serial interval of COVID-19 in South Korea: a comprehensive analysis of age and regional influences

Abstract

IntroductionQuantifying the transmissibility over time, particularly by region and age, using parameters such as serial interval and time-varying reproduction number, helps in formulating targeted interventions. Moreover, considering the impact of geographical factors on transmission provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of control measures.MethodsDrawing on a comprehensive dataset of COVID-19 cases in South Korea, we analyzed transmission dynamics with a focus on age and regional variations. The dataset, compiled through the efforts of dedicated epidemiologists, includes information on symptom onset dates, enabling detailed investigations. The pandemic was divided into distinct phases, aligning with changes in policies, emergence of variants, and vaccination efforts. We analyzed various interventions such as social distancing, vaccination rates, school closures, and population density. Key parameters like serial interval, heatmaps, and time-varying reproduction numbers were used to quantify age and region-specific transmission trends.ResultsAnalysis of transmission pairs within age groups highlighted the significant impact of school closure policies on the spread among individuals aged 0-19. This analysis also shed light on transmission dynamics within familial and educational settings. Changes in confirmed cases over time revealed a decrease in spread among individuals aged 65 and older, attributed to higher vaccination rates. Conversely, densely populated metropolitan areas experienced an increase in confirmed cases. Examination of time-varying reproduction numbers by region uncovered heterogeneity in transmission patterns, with regions implementing strict social distancing measures showing both increased confirmed cases and delayed spread, indicating the effectiveness of these policies.DiscussionOur findings underscore the importance of evaluating and tailoring epidemic control policies based on key COVID-19 parameters. The analysis of social distancing measures, school closures, and vaccine impact provides valuable insights into controlling transmission. By quantifying the impact of these interventions on different age groups and regions, we contribute to the ongoing efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic effectively.