Development and internal validation of a risk model for hyperuricemia in diabetic kidney disease patients

Abstract

PurposeThis research aimed to identify independent risk factors for hyperuricemia (HUA) in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients and develop an HUA risk model based on a retrospective study in Ningbo, China.Patients and methodsSix hundred and ten DKD patients attending the two hospitals between January 2019 and December 2020 were enrolled in this research and randomized to the training and validation cohorts based on the corresponding ratio (7:3). Independent risk factors associated with HUA were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. The characteristic variables of the HUA risk prediction model were screened out by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) combined with 10-fold cross-validation, and the model was presented by nomogram. The C-index and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to evaluate the discriminatory power, degree of fitting, and clinical applicability of the risk model.ResultsBody mass index (BMI), HbA1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and hyperlipidemia were identified as independent risk factors for HUA in the DKD population. The characteristic variables (gender, family history of T2DM, drinking history, BMI, and hyperlipidemia) were screened out by LASSO combined with 10-fold cross-validation and included as predictors in the HUA risk prediction model. In the training cohort, the HUA risk model showed good discriminatory power with a C-index of 0.761 (95% CI: 0.712–0.810) and excellent degree of fit (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, P > 0.05), and the results of the DCA showed that the prediction model could be beneficial for patients when the threshold probability was 9–79%. Meanwhile, the risk model was also well validated in the validation cohort, where the C-index was 0.843 (95% CI: 0.780–0.906), the degree of fit was good, and the DCA risk threshold probability was 7–100%.ConclusionThe development of risk models contributes to the early identification and prevention of HUA in the DKD population, which is vital for preventing and reducing adverse prognostic events in DKD.