Age–period–cohort analysis of epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture in China from 1992 to 2021 and forecasts for 2046

Abstract

BackgroundThis study explored the epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture (PF) in China from 1992 to 2021, analyze their relationships with age–period–cohort (APC) factors, and predict the trends of PF from 2022 to 2046.MethodsIncidence and years lived with disabilities (YLDs) of PF among sexes in China from 1992 to 2021 were obtained through the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Trends in the incidence and YLDs were described, and a joinpoint regression model was used. The APC model was used to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence and YLDs. Nordpred forecasted the incidence and YLDs in China from 2022 to 2046.ResultsIn 2021, there were an estimated 0.63 million incidence cases and 0.33 million of YLDs, respectively. The number and age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence and YLDs were both gradually increased. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence and YLDs for men were 0.26% and −0.17%, respectively. For women, the AAPC values for incidence and YLDs were −0.03% and −0.57% (p < 0. 001), respectively. The relative risk (RR) of PF increases with age, with the lowest risk in those aged 10–14 years for incidence and aged 1–4 for YLDs and the highest risk in those aged >95 years for incidence and aged 90–94 years for YLDs. The period effect showed a totally increase in the risk across the general, male, and female populations. Cohort effects indicated a totally significant decline for both incidence and YLDs. The predicted incidence and YLDs of PF in China from 2022 to 2046 showed an initial rise, followed by a decline, with 2029 and 2034 being the turning point for incidence and YLDs, respectively.ConclusionThe characteristics of pelvic fracture incidence and YLDs in China are complex. Thus, primary prevention measures must be strengthened. Raising awareness about osteoporosis prevention, enhancing public health education, and promoting good dietary and hygiene habits are appropriate preventive measures for PF in China.