Author:
Xu Jiaxuan,Zuo Yifan,Sun Jingjing,Zhou Min,Dong Xiaoqing,Chen Bing
Abstract
BackgroundThis study aimed to develop reliable nomogram-based predictive models that could guide prognostic stratification and individualized treatments in patients with multiple myeloma (MM).MethodsClinical information of 560 patients was extracted from the MM dataset of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project. The patients were divided into a development cohort (n = 350) and an internal validation cohort (n = 210) according to the therapeutic regimens received. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors for nomogram construction. Nomogram performance was assessed using concordance indices, the area under the curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. The nomograms were also validated in an external cohort of 56 patients newly diagnosed with MM at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from May 2016 to June 2019.ResultsLactate dehydrogenase (LDH), albumin, and cytogenetic abnormalities were incorporated into the nomogram to predict overall survival (OS), whereas LDH, β2-microglobulin, and cytogenetic abnormalities were incorporated into the nomogram to predict event-free survival (EFS). The nomograms showed good predictive performances in the development, internal validation, and external validation cohorts. Additionally, we observed a superior prognostic predictive ability in nomograms compared to that of the International Staging System. According to the prognostic nomograms, risk stratification was applied to divide the patients into two risk groups. The OS and EFS rates of low-risk patients were significantly better than those of high-risk patients, suggesting a greater function of the nomogram models for risk stratification.ConclusionTwo simple-to-use prognostic models were established and validated. The proposed nomograms have potential clinical applications in predicting OS and EFS for patients with MM.
Funder
Nanjing Medical Science and Technique Development Foundation
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献