Research on China's Monetary Policy Orientation and Regulation in COVID-19

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019 has caused a huge impact on the global economy. In this context, it is of great significance to study the orientation and regulation of China's monetary policy, which aims to mitigate the external impact brought by COVID-19. Therefore, this paper uses the SV-TVP-FAVAR model to analyze the dynamic relationships among interest rate, inflation gap and output gap. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the output gap has a significant impact on the adjustment of the interest rate and inflation gap. In the COVID-19 era, the former response is positive and the latter response is negative. Second, the impact of the inflation gap on the interest rate fluctuates frequently, but the impact has gradually weakened in recent years. In addition, the inflation gap shows a significant positive response to the impact of the output gap. Third, interest rate is characterized by targeting the output gap and the inflation gap in the short term. However, in the period of COVID-19, the regulation effect of China's monetary policy on the inflation gap and the output gap has weakened. Meanwhile, compared with targeting the output gap, monetary policy has a more obvious orientation to control inflation.