Preliminary Assessment of Chinese Strategy in Controlling Reemergent Local Outbreak of COVID-19

Abstract

Reemergent local outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in China, yet few Chinese response strategies and its evaluation have been reported. This study presents a preliminary assessment of Chinese strategy in controlling reemergent local outbreaks of COVID-19. Time course of accumulative and daily new cases and time-varying reproductive numbers (Rt) of outbreak areas were presented. The asymptomatic rate, days required to control the outbreaks, seeding time (ST), and doubling time (DT) of areas with over 96 reemergent cases were calculated. National and local year-on-year growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP) were presented. Accumulative numbers of 30, 8, 11, 430, 15, 139, 1,067, 382, 42, and 94 confirmed reemergent COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Hulun Buir, Shanghai, Tianjin, Kashgar, Qingdao, Dalian, Urumchi, Beijing, Jilin, and Harbin, respectively. Among them, maximum rate of asymptomatic infections was 81.9%. Time required to control the local outbreaks in the areas given above varied from 29 to 51 days. After activation of outbreak responses, the late-stage DTs of Kashgar, Urumchi, Beijing, and Dalian were apparently lengthened compared to the early-stage DTs. Although the year-on-year GDP growth rate of Urumchi was slightly affected, the GDP growth rate of Dalian, Beijing, Jilin, and Harbin kept rising during the reemergence. Moreover, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of Mainland China turned positive regardless of the reemergent local outbreaks. In general, the Chinese strategy to maintain the status of no or minimal transmission was effective in balancing the control of COVID-19 reemergent local outbreak and the recovery of economy.