A Robust Framework for Epidemic Analysis, Prediction and Detection of COVID-19

Abstract

Covid-19 has become a pandemic that affects lots of individuals daily, worldwide, and, particularly, the widespread disruption in numerous countries, namely, the US, Italy, India, Saudi Arabia. The timely detection of this infectious disease is mandatory to prevent the quick spread globally and locally. Moreover, the timely detection of COVID-19 in the coming time is significant to well cope with the disease control by Governments. The common symptoms of COVID are fever as well as dry cough, which is similar to the normal flu. The disease is devastating and spreads quickly, which affects individuals of all ages, particularly, aged people and those with feeble immune systems. There is a standard method employed to detect the COVID, namely, the real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test. But this method has shortcomings, i.e., it takes a long time and generates maximum false-positive cases. Consequently, we necessitate to propose a robust framework for the detection as well as for the estimation of COVID cases globally. To achieve the above goals, we proposed a novel technique to analyze, predict, and detect the COVID-19 infection. We made dependable estimates on significant pandemic parameters and made predictions of infection as well as potential washout time frames for numerous countries globally. We used a publicly available dataset composed by Johns Hopkins Center for estimation, analysis, and predictions of COVID cases during the time period of 21 April 2020 to 27 June 2020. We employed a simple circulation for fast as well as simple estimates of the COVID model and estimated the parameters of the Gaussian curve, utilizing a parameter, namely, the least-square parameter curve fitting for numerous countries in distinct areas. Forecasts of COVID depend upon the potential results of Gaussian time evolution with a central limit theorem of data the Covid prediction to be justified. For gaussian distribution, the parameters, namely, extreme time and thickness are regulated using a statistical Y2 fit for the aim of doubling times after 21 April 2020. Moreover, for the detection of COVID-19, we also proposed a novel technique, employing the two features, namely, Histogram of Oriented Gradients and Scale Invariant Feature Transform. We also designed a CNN-based architecture named COVIDDetectorNet for classification purposes. We fed the extracted features into the proposed COVIDDetectorNet to detect COVID-19, viral pneumonia, and other lung infections. Our method obtained an accuracy of 96.51, 92.62, and 86.53% for two, three, and four classes, respectively. Experimental outcomes illustrate that our method is reliable to be employed for the forecast and detection of COVID-19 disease.