Regression discontinuity design for the study of health effects of exposures acting early in life

Abstract

Regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental approach to study the causal effect of an exposure on later outcomes by exploiting the discontinuity in the exposure probability at an assignment variable cut-off. With the intent of facilitating the use of RDD in the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) research, we describe the main aspects of the study design and review the studies, assignment variables and exposures that have been investigated to identify short- and long-term health effects of early life exposures. We also provide a brief overview of some of the methodological considerations for the RDD identification using an example of a DOHaD study. An increasing number of studies investigating the effects of early life environmental stressors on health outcomes use RDD, mostly in the context of education, social and welfare policies, healthcare organization and insurance, and clinical management. Age and calendar time are the mostly used assignment variables to study the effects of various early life policies and programs, shock events and guidelines. Maternal and newborn characteristics, such as age, birth weight and gestational age are frequently used assignment variables to study the effects of the type of neonatal care, health insurance, and newborn benefits, while socioeconomic measures have been used to study the effects of social and welfare programs. RDD has advantages, including intuitive interpretation, and transparent and simple graphical representation. It provides valid causal estimates if the assumptions, relatively weak compared to other non-experimental study designs, are met. Its use to study health effects of exposures acting early in life has been limited to studies based on registries and administrative databases, while birth cohort data has not been exploited so far using this design. Local causal effect around the cut-off, difficulty in reaching high statistical power compared to other study designs, and the rarity of settings outside of policy and program evaluations hamper the widespread use of RDD in the DOHaD research. Still, the assignment variables’ cut-offs for exposures applied in previous studies can be used, if appropriate, in other settings and with additional outcomes to address different research questions.