Prebunking earthquake predictions on social media

Abstract

Earthquake misinformation has not only a significant impact on crisis management, but also on trust in scientific information and institutions. As a global center for seismic information, the Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC) has developed a strategy to combat false information related to earthquakes, particularly on Twitter (now known as X). This strategy includes the automation of prebunking tweets to prevent the spread of false information and, particularly unreliable claims of earthquake predictions. In the field of false information, predictions of earthquakes have a particular characteristic: their appearance follows a specific dynamic and the attention paid to them is predictable, which makes the automation of countermeasures (prebunking and debunking) both possible and relevant. Therefore, the objectives of the EMSC’s automatic tweets are to warn people in advance, particularly those who may be vulnerable to earthquake misinformation, while filling the information void with verified, scientifically-based information in the meantime. This paper seeks to examine the usefulness of such a tool. It does so by analyzing users’ engagement with these tweets. In addition, it focuses on two case studies, the seismic sequence in Turkey following the M7.8 earthquake on February 6, 2023 and the M6.8 Morocco earthquake on September 8, 2023. The results show engagement with the automatically generated tweets but an even greater interaction and engagement with manual tweets, highlighting the importance of a holistic approach. Recommendations include optimizing the visibility of the tweets, extending efforts beyond social media, and exploring alternative platforms. The paper advocates for a comprehensive strategy, combining automated tools with manual engagement and leveraging diverse communication channels to take into account cultural differences.