Assessing risk from invasive alien plants in China: Reconstructing invasion history and estimating distribution patterns of Lolium temulentum and Aegilops tauschii

Abstract

IntroductionThe establishment of invasive alien plants (IAPs) is primarily driven by climate warming and human activities, and their populations have a negative impact on agricultural economics, ecological systems, and human health.Lolium temulentumandAegilops tauschiiare critical IAPs in China because they reduce the quality of cereal grains and decrease wheat yields.Lolium temulentumis a winter-temperate weed that spreads easily and is poisonous to humans and animals.Aegilops tauschiiis resistant to herbicides, has a high reproductive rate, and frequently grows in wheat. Both species have been listed in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China’s management catalog since 2006.MethodsIn the present study, the historical occurrence and invasion of each species were collected and reconstructed, which showed that the population outbreak ofL. temulentumbegan in 2010, whereas that ofA. tauschiibegan in 2000. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the geographical distributions ofL. temulentumandA. tauschiiwere predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s and 2050s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5).ResultsThe mean AUC values were 0.867 and 0.931 forL. temulentumandA. tauschii, respectively. Human influence index (HII), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) were the most significant variables forL. temulentum, whereas human influence index, temperature seasonality (standard deviation×100) (bio4), and annual mean temperature (bio1) were the critical environmental variables forA. tauschi.Suitable habitat areas in China forL. temulentumandA. tauschiicurrently covered total areas of 125 × 104and 235 × 104km2, respectively. Future suitable areas ofL. temulentumreached the maximum under SSP2-4.5, from 2021 to 2060, whereas forA. tauschiithey reached the maximum under SSP5-8.5, from 2021 to 2060. Furthermore, the overlap area under the current climate conditions forL. temulentumandA. tauschiiwas approximately 90 × 104km2, mainly located in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei. The overlap areas decreased in the 2030s, increased in the 2050s, and reached a maximum under SSP1-2.6 (or SSP2-4.5) with an approximate area of 104 × 104km2. The centroid ofL. temulentumin Henan was transferred to the southwest, whereas forA. tauschiiit transferred to higher latitudes in the northeast.DiscussionOur findings provide a practical reference for the early warning, control, and management of these two destructive IAP populations in China.