Estimating Maize Yield in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China Using Land Surface Data Assimilation: Integrating a Crop Model and Remote Sensing

Abstract

Accurate yield estimation at the regional scale has always been a persistent challenge in the agricultural sector. With the vigorous emergence of remote sensing land surface observations in recent decades, data assimilation methodology has become an effective means to promote the accuracy and efficiency of yield estimation by integrating regional data and point-scale crop models. This paper focuses on the black soil area of Northeast China, a national strategic grain production base, applying the AquaCrop crop growth model to simulate the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and maize yield from 2000 to 2020 and then forming a reliable FVC optimization dataset based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) assimilation algorithm with remote sensing products. Using the random forest model, the regression relationship between FVC and yield was established from the long-term time series data, which is crucial to achieve better yield estimation through the optimized FVC. The major findings include the following: (1) The R2 of the assimilated FVC and maize yield can reach 0.557. (2) When compared with the local statistical yield, our method reduced the mean absolute error (MAE) from 1.164 ton/ha (based on GLASS FVC products) to 1.004 ton/ha (based on the calibrated AquaCrop model) and then to 0.888 ton/ha (the result after assimilation). The above results show that we have proposed a yield estimation method to provide accurate yield estimations by combining data assimilation and machine learning. This study provided deep insights into understanding the variations in FVC and revealed the spatially explicit yield prediction ability from the time series land surface parameters, which has significant potential for optimizing water and soil resource management.