Predicting potential and quality distribution of Anisodus tanguticus (Maxim.) Pascher under different climatic conditions in the Qinghai–Tibet plateau

Abstract

Anisodus tanguticus (Maxim.) Pascher, a distinctive medicinal plant native to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, has garnered attention due to increasing market demand. This study explores the impact of environmental factors on the distribution and levels of active compounds namely anisodamine, anisodine, and atropine within A. tanguticus. Our goal was to identify suitable cultivation areas for this plant. This study employs the maximum entropy model to simulate the suitable area of A. tanguticus under current conditions and three climate change scenarios during the 2050s and 2070s. The finding revealed that altitude, precipitation in the warmest season (Bio 18), the average annual temperature (Bio 1) exerted significant influences on the distribution of A. tanguticus. Among the environmental factors considered, temperature difference between day and night (Bio 2) had the most substantial impact on the distribution of anisodamine, temperature seasonal variation variance (Bio 4) predominantly influenced anisodine distribution, and Bio 1 had the greatest effected on the distribution of atropine. The suitable areas primarily exist in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, encompassing a total area of 30.78 × 104 km2. Under the climate scenarios for the future, the suitable areas exhibit increasing trends of approximately 30.2%, 30.3%, and 39.8% by the 2050s, and 25.1%, 48.8%, and 60.1% by the 2070s. This research would provide theoretical suggestions for the protection, and cultivation management of A. tanguticus resources to face the challenge of global climate change.