A Nomogram for Predicting Patent Foramen Ovale-Related Stroke Recurrence

Abstract

BackgroundThe high prevalence of patent foramen ovale (PFO) in cryptogenic stroke suggested a stroke-causing role for PFO. As risk factors for recurrence of such stroke are not recognized, clinicians cannot sufficiently identify, treat, and follow-up high-risk patients. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a prediction model for PFO-related stroke recurrence.MethodsThis study included 392 patients with PFO-related stroke in a training set and 164 patients with PFO-related stroke in an independent validation set. In the training set, independent risk factors for recurrence identified using forward stepwise Cox regression were included in nomogram 1, and those identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression were included in nomogram 2. Nomogram performance and discrimination were assessed using the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analyses (DCA). The results were also validated in the validation set.ResultsNomogram 1 was based on homocysteine (Hcy), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and albumin (ALB), and nomogram 2 was based on age, diabetes, hypertension, right-to-left shunt, ALB, prealbumin, hsCRP, and Hcy. The C-index of nomogram 1 was 0.861, which was not significantly different from that of nomogram 2 (0.893). The 2- and 5-year AUCs of nomogram 1 were 0.863 and 0.777, respectively. In the validation set, nomogram 1 still had good discrimination (C-index, 0.862; 2-year AUC, 0.839; 5-year AUC, 0.990). The calibration curve showed good homogeneity between the prediction by nomogram 1 and the actual observation. DCA demonstrated that nomogram 1 was clinically useful. Moreover, patients were successfully divided into two distinct risk groups (low and high risk) for recurrence rate by nomogram 1.ConclusionsNomogram 1, based on Hcy, hsCRP, and ALB levels, provided a more clinically realistic prognostic prediction for patients with PFO-related stroke. This model could help patients with PFO-related stroke to facilitate personalized prognostic evaluations.